Tuberculosis research at IDM¶
Tuberculosis research at IDM is developing multi-scale modeling tools to estimate the impact of new and existing strategies for preventing, diagnosing and treating TB. By leveraging the dynamic capabilities of Epidemiological MODeling software (EMOD), the team explores a variety of policy-relevant topics, specifically regarding the impacts of interventions and what TB indicators may be most important for tracking epidemics. Further, the team focuses on how to best create pathways to health care, and how TB-HIV co-infection impacts the dynamics of TB and HIV.
In May 2014 the World Health Assembly approved ambitious TB control targets for 2025 including a 40% reduction in incidence and a 75% reduction in mortality. We are building a calibrated model of TB transmission for three of the highest burden countries: China, India and South Africa. The model enables us to understand sources of infection, define the role of high-risk groups and explore the potential epidemiological benefits of various intervention strategies including improved disease surveillance and deployment of new drugs and diagnostics.
For the current research, research team profiles, and a full list of published papers from IDM’s tuberculosis group, see the IDM Tuberculosis Research Website.
Menzies, et al., 2016. Cost-effectiveness and resource implications of aggressive action on tuberculosis in China, India, and South Africa: a combined analysis of nine models. The Lancet. 4:11.
Houben, et al., 2016. Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models. The Lancet. 4:11.
Huynh, et al., 2015. Tuberculosis control strategies to reach the 2035 global targets in China: the role of changing demographics and reactivation disease. BMC Medicine. 13:88.