ethiopia#

Set the parameters for FPsim, specifically for Ethiopia.

Functions

age_mortality

Age-dependent mortality rates taken from UN World Population Prospects 2022.

age_pyramid

Starting age bin, male population, female population Data are from World Population Prospects https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/

barriers

Reasons for nonuse -- taken from Ethiopia DHS 2005.

birth_spacing_pref

Returns an array of birth spacing preferences by closest postpartum month.

data2interp

Convert unevenly spaced data into an even spline interpolation

debut_age

Returns an array of weighted probabilities of sexual debut by a certain age 10-45.

exposure_age

Returns an array of experimental factors to be applied to account for residual exposure to either pregnancy or live birth by age.

exposure_parity

Returns an array of experimental factors to be applied to account for residual exposure to either pregnancy or live birth by parity.

fecundity_ratio_nullip

Returns an array of fecundity ratios for a nulliparous woman vs a gravid woman from PRESTO study: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5712257/ Approximates primary infertility and its increasing likelihood if a woman has never conceived by age

female_age_fecundity

Use fecundity rates from PRESTO study: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5712257/ Fecundity rate assumed to be approximately linear from onset of fecundity around age 10 (average age of menses 12.5) to first data point at age 20 45-50 age bin estimated at 0.10 of fecundity of 25-27 yr olds

filenames

Data files for use with calibration, etc -- not needed for running a sim

infant_mortality

From World Bank indicators for infant mortality (< 1 year) for Ethiopia, per 1000 live births From API_SP.DYN.IMRT.IN_DS2_en_csv_v2_5358355 Adolescent increased risk of infant mortality gradient taken from Noori et al for Sub-Saharan African from 2014-2018.

lactational_amenorrhea

Returns an array of the percent of breastfeeding women by month postpartum 0-11 months who meet criteria for LAM: Exclusively breastfeeding (bf + water alone), menses have not returned.

make_pars

Take all parameters and construct into a dictionary

maternal_mortality

From World Bank indicators for maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate) per 100,000 live births: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.STA.MMRT?locations=ET

method_probs

Define "raw" (un-normalized, un-trended) matrices to give transitional probabilities from PMA Ethiopia contraceptive calendar data.

methods

Names, indices, modern/traditional flag, and efficacies of contraceptive methods -- see also parameters.py Efficacy from Guttmacher, fp_prerelease/docs/gates_review/contraceptive-failure-rates-in-developing-world_1.pdf BTL failure rate from general published data Pooled efficacy rates for all women in this study: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4970461/

miscarriage

Returns a linear interpolation of the likelihood of a miscarriage by age, taken from data from Magnus et al BMJ 2019: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30894356/ Data to be fed into likelihood of continuing a pregnancy once initialized in model Age 0 and 5 set at 100% likelihood.

scalar_pars

sexual_activity

Returns a linear interpolation of rates of female sexual activity, defined as percentage women who have had sex within the last four weeks.

sexual_activity_pp

Returns an array of monthly likelihood of having resumed sexual activity within 0-35 months postpartum Uses 2016 Ethiopia DHS individual recode (postpartum (v222), months since last birth, and sexual activity within 30 days.

stillbirth

From Report of the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, 2020 https://childmortality.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/UN-IGME-2020-Stillbirth-Report.pdf